Free course library15 lessons · 4 topics

Using the Monte Carlo Forecasting Spreadsheets

Learn how to use the free forecasting spreadsheets for single backlogs, multiple features, risk, changing delivery pace, and historical data.

Monte Carlo Spreadsheets course cover

By Troy Magennis

Lesson 5 of 15 · Using the Spreadsheets

Exercise 2: Basic Forecasting of a Single Backlog

Use the Throughput Forecaster to answer four increasingly realistic delivery questions.

Preserved quiz

Check your understanding

4 questions

These questions, correct answers, and explanations were recovered from the original Thinkific lesson. Nothing is submitted externally.

Question 1

How many weeks at 85% certainty would it take to deliver 25 well-understood stories, with no splitting, at 5 stories per week, when the team is 100% focused on this work?

Throughput Forecaster showing a five-week result
The spreadsheet setup and result preserved from the original explanation.
Question 2

How many weeks at 85% certainty would it take to deliver 25–30 stories, with work splitting between 1–2x, throughput of 3–10 stories per week (most likely 5), and the team 50% focused on this work?

Throughput Forecaster showing a 17-to-18-week result
The spreadsheet setup and result preserved from the original explanation.
Question 3

Can the same work be delivered with 85% certainty by April 1, 2023, if it starts January 1, 2023?

Throughput Forecaster showing an 85th-percentile date in May
Question 4

If the team were 100% dedicated to this work, could it be delivered with 85% certainty by April 1, 2023, starting January 1, 2023?

Throughput Forecaster showing an 85th-percentile date in March

0 of 4 answered