Throughput Forecaster

Monte Carlo simulation for a single body of work. Estimates when work will complete and how many stories can be finished in a given time.

2. How many stories remaining?

Adjusted range: 20 25

3. Story split rate
4. Throughput

The current inputs are stored in the URL for sharing.

5. Risks (optional)
LikelihoodImpact LowImpact HighDescription

Waiting for valid inputs

Configure the inputs on the left. Results will appear here automatically.

URL Parameters (advanced)

Append query parameters to prefill the form for testing or shared scenarios. This supports the main forecasting inputs. Risk rows are not currently populated from the URL.

ParameterMeaning
startDateOptional start date in YYYY-MM-DD format.
storyLow, storyHighRemaining story-count range before complexity adjustment.
complexityComplexity preset index: 0-3.
splitLow, splitHighStory split-rate range.
durationIdxThroughput unit index: 0=1 week, 1=2 weeks, 2=3 weeks, 3=4 weeks.
throughputModeUse estimate or data.
tpLow, tpMostLikely, tpHighEstimate-mode throughput inputs.
samplesTextHistorical throughput samples, separated by commas or new lines.
focusIdxFocus index: 0=100%, 1=75%, 2=50%, 3=25%.
weeksToForecastStory-count forecast window, from 1 to 52 intervals.
numTrialsSimulation trials, from 1 to 1000.
risksOptional array of risk objects with likelihood, impactLow, impactHigh, and description.

Estimate mode with a likely throughput value

Prefills the form with a weekly estimate-based scenario and a start date.

Open example

/throughput?startDate=2026-04-01&storyLow=18&storyHigh=26&complexity=1&splitLow=1&splitHigh=1.4&durationIdx=0&throughputMode=estimate&tpLow=3&tpMostLikely=5&tpHigh=8&focusIdx=1&weeksToForecast=6&numTrials=750

Historical-data mode with 2-week throughput samples

Uses historical samples and a 2-week unit to exercise the data-backed path.

Open example

/throughput?startDate=2026-04-14&storyLow=24&storyHigh=32&complexity=2&splitLow=1.1&splitHigh=1.8&durationIdx=1&throughputMode=data&samplesText=2,3,4,5,3,6,4,5&focusIdx=2&weeksToForecast=4&numTrials=600