Story Count Forecaster
Enter estimates for previously sized features or epics. The Monte Carlo simulation resamples from your data to project total story count for any number of features, accounting for work splitting.
1. Enter Features or Epics
Enter the estimated story count / points for each feature before starting. Optionally enter the actual count after completion to compute observed split rates.
| ID | Feature / Epic Name | Estimated Stories | Actual Stories | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
2. Forecast Settings
Features entered on input table: 10
Work often splits into smaller pieces when started. 1 = no change, 2 = every item might become two, 3 = every item might become three, etc.
The current inputs are stored in the URL for sharing.
Missing required inputs
Enter at least one feature estimate.
URL Parameters (advanced)
Append query parameters to prefill the form for testing or shared scenarios. Historical feature rows are stored in a compact encoded string rather than raw JSON.
| Parameter | Meaning |
|---|---|
| totalFeatureCount | How many total features or epics to forecast. |
| splitLow, splitHigh | Story split-rate range applied to sampled estimates. |
| numTrials | Simulation trials, typically 100-10000. |
| featuresText | Compact feature rows in the form id~name~estimate~actual, separated by |. |
Ten sampled features for a larger portfolio forecast
Prefills a reference-class dataset with mixed actuals so the split-range guidance appears immediately.
/story-count?totalFeatureCount=18&splitLow=1&splitHigh=1.4&numTrials=1200&featuresText=F1%7EOnboarding%7E5%7E8%7CF2%7EBilling%7E8%7E13%7CF3%7EAudit%2520Trail%7E3%7E5%7CF4%7ENotifications%7E5%7E5%7CF5%7EReporting%7E13%7E21%7CF6%7EWorkflow%2520Rules%7E8%7E13%7CF7%7EAPI%2520Migration%7E20%7E34%7CF8%7EPartner%2520Sync%7E13%7E13
Minimal dataset for quick sanity checks
Uses a shorter historical sample to exercise the basic forecast and stability messaging path.
/story-count?totalFeatureCount=9&splitLow=1&splitHigh=1&numTrials=800&featuresText=A1%7ESearch%7E5%7E8%7CA2%7EProfiles%7E8%7E8%7CA3%7EExports%7E3%7E%7CA4%7ESSO%7E13%7E