Workshops
Self-paced and Instructor-led Masterclass Public Online Workshops
Agile Physics - The Math of Flow
Short explanations of how and why to apply math, probability, and statistics in Agile development.
$495
Dependency Management - capture, fix, and avoid
A deep-dive workshop teaching practical ways to capture, plan, and eliminate cross-team dependencies.
$495
Self-paced: Data-Driven Improvement and Outcomes
Learn to optimize team performance and achieve targeted outcomes with practical, data-driven techniques.
$495
All Power Sessions (current & future)
Access all Power Session courses with actionable lessons to get up and running quickly.
$99
Using the Monte Carlo Forecasting Spreadsheets
Learn how to use the forecasting spreadsheets to improve planning confidence and delivery predictability.
$75
Using the Team Dashboard Spreadsheet
Use the Team Dashboard spreadsheet to track flow metrics without maintenance overhead.
$75
About Troy Magennis
Quantitative forecasting for software leaders who need better decisions, not better guesses.
30+ years
Across engineering, leadership, and delivery at scale.
Founder
Focused Objective, specializing in metrics and probabilistic forecasting.
Trusted advisor
Helping teams replace opinion-driven planning with evidence-driven decisions.
Troy Magennis is the founder of Focused Objective and one of the most recognized voices in quantitative agile forecasting. He helps software organizations make better delivery, planning, and investment decisions by using historical data, flow metrics, and probabilistic thinking in place of intuition-heavy forecasting.
His career spans more than three decades, from hands-on technical roles to executive leadership in large technology organizations. That range matters: Troy understands both the mechanics of delivery and the commercial pressure behind portfolio choices, deadlines, dependencies, and risk.
Through consulting, training, and conference speaking, he has helped leaders and teams build more predictable systems of work, cut through misleading metrics, and create practical forecasting approaches that executives can actually trust. His work is grounded, mathematically rigorous, and relentlessly focused on better outcomes.
Available for workshops, advisory work, and practical forecasting training.
Tools
Throughput Forecaster
Given historical throughput data, forecast how many items a team can deliver in a time window — with percentile-based confidence levels.
Open toolMulti-Feature Cut Line
Prioritize a backlog of features and see which ones are likely to ship by a target date, with a clear probabilistic cut line.
Open toolStory Count Forecaster
Estimate total story count from a partially-estimated backlog using reference-class forecasting and Monte Carlo simulation.
Open toolWrong Order-O-Meter
Measure how far actual delivery order diverged from the plan. Accounts for re-ordering, unplanned work, and undelivered items.
Open toolVoting Scorer
Enter ranked ballots and compare plurality, Borda count, and Schulze outcomes with live pairwise matrices and validation.
Open toolLatent Defect Estimation
Estimate how many defects remain undiscovered using the Lincoln-Petersen capture-recapture method with two independent test groups.
Open toolCapability Matrix
Assess your team's skill levels across technologies, identify capability gaps, risk areas, and plan training investments with urgency matrices.
Open toolTeam Dashboard
Visualize flow metrics across six dimensions: throughput, cycle time, WIP, defect rate, cumulative flow, and predictability.
Open toolWhy Monte Carlo?
No Estimation Required
Use actual throughput data instead of story point estimates. Let the math do the heavy lifting.
Probabilistic Answers
Get confidence intervals (50th, 85th, 95th percentile) instead of single-point estimates that always miss.
Runs in Your Browser
All simulations run client-side. Your data never leaves your machine.
Level Up Your Team
Training on Forecasting & Metrics
Learn how to apply Monte Carlo simulation, flow metrics, and probabilistic forecasting in your organisation. Workshops and coaching from the team behind these tools.
Visit focusedobjective.com