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Forecasting and Simulating Software Development Projects

Effective Modeling of Kanban & Scrum Projects using Monte-carlo Simulation

Authored by Troy Magennis

Free chapter: Chapter 2 – Example Modeling Scenario

Forecasting and Simulating Software Development Projects explains how to effectively model Kanban and Scrum projects to get accurate forecasts of cost, delivery dates and staff requirements.

Modeling using Monte-carlo simulation allows rapid what-if analysis to find options that minimize cost and delivery time, whilst maximizing revenue. Simulation lets you hit target delivery dates, and shows the impact of hiring (or losing) staff with certain skillsets, taking software project leadership to a new level of maturity.

Target audience and key takeaways –

  • Project Managers: Understand modeling and forecast projects, and how to simulate those models to answer questions regarding delivery dates, cost, and staffing needs.
  • Development Managers and Team Leads: Understand how to reduce the amount of estimation required for cost and date forecasts, and determining what development events cause the most impact.
  • Executive Leadership: Understand how multiple teams can co-ordinate their forecasts in a methodical way, and provide a consistent approach to risk management and decision making.
  • Investors: Understand how to obtain reliable cost and date forecasts for potential investments and how to compare different software project investment portfolios.

Topics include –

  • Simulating Scrum and Kanban project methodologies
  • Forecasting the probability of hitting delivery date & costs
  • Hiring the right team size and skill mix
  • Creating visual animations and videos to sell solutions to others
  • Finding what model inputs are critical to delivery date
  • Effective (and minimal) story estimation and grouping strategies
  • Capturing the project deliverables and story backlog
  • Modeling development events: defects, added scope and blocking events
  • Reverse engineering real-world data to improve model accuracy
Publication Date:


Oct 25 2011


1466454830 / 9781466454835

Page Count:


Binding Type:

US Trade Paper

Trim Size:

7″ x 10″




Black and White

Related Categories:

Computers / Computer Simulation