New Version (1.0.44) Download

Posted by in Announcements, Tools |

The next beta version of the simulation engine has been uploaded to the Downloads page.
** If you are running the previous beta version downloaded December 2011, please un-install and download and install this version. **

This version contains many new features and bug fixes that were reported by our early adopters. A full description of the new features can be found in the release notes, but to summarize:

Multiple project phase support – you can specify any number of project phases and apply fixed multiplier adjustments to estimates and occurrence estimates (e.g. make estimates during the ramp-up phase take a little bit longer), and have events target specific phases (e.g. have more defects reported later in the project).

  • New command line application – allows you to automate and integrate the simulation engine with other tools and combine the results with other analysis tools.
  • Customizable HTML Report Templates – you can now edit and customize all of the HTML reports using a templating language. There was a lot of feedback that you wanted these reports to be completely customizable, so we have opened up complete control.
  • Scrum HTML Reports now included – these missed the previous beta, all reports are now available for all simulation commands for both Agile/Scrum and Lean/Kanban.
  • Scrum Simulation examples – these missed the previous beta. There are now Scrum examples for every simulation command installed into the Examples folder.
  • Custom and Built-in Distributions – there are now over 20 built-in random number distributions, and two powerful custom distribution types that allow complete control over how random numbers are generated. This is an advanced topic that will be documented and explained in future posts.
  • ALPHA: Batch transfer rates for starting and completing work: To model work being started as a batch every so often, and work only being moved forward in a batch every so often, each Kanban column can specify a replenishInterval and a completeInterval. Cards will only be started after the number of simulation steps specified in the replenishInterval for a column, and will only be allowed to move to the next column or backlog after the number of simulation steps specified in the completeInterval for each column has passed. The counter resets after each trigger.

Examples and more information can be found in this versions release notes.

Read More

Training Course: Effective Modeling and Simulation

Posted by in Announcements, Events |

We are pleased to announce a new training course to accelerate understanding and to reduce the time to being effective.

Effective Modeling and Simulation (2 Days)
This 2-day training course gives the participants an intermediate to advanced grounding in modeling and forecasting software development projects. This course is based on our simulation products and the Forecasting and Simulating Software Development Projects: Effective Modeling of Kanban & Scrum Projects using Monte-carlo Simulation book, this hands-on course gives more background and advanced lessons that mean forecasts will be more reliable and accurate. Suitable for Scrum and Kanban teams (tailored for the audience).

Sample Book Chapter: Example Modeling Scenario

Posted by in Announcements, Featured, Forecasting |

As a preview of our new book: Forecasting and Simulating Software Development Projects: Effective Modeling of Kanban & Scrum Projects using Monte-carlo Simulation, here is a sample chapter. This chapter is a walkthrough of a modeling and simulation scenario of a project that proposes to build a new website.

This chapter shows how a model can help get a project approved, and them monitor progress on that project. It demonstrates how to initially create a quick model, and understand what staff and costs will be needed for various delivery options.


Read More

New Book: Forecasting and Simulating Software Development Projects

Posted by in Announcements, Featured |

We have just published our first book on the techniques we use and encourage other professionals to use in modeling and simulating Kanban and Scrum software projects. For more information see the Books and Publications page.

Available on Amazon soon, at the moment you can buy it from our publishing partner, and for a limited time, get a 25% discount.

Special offer: 25% off use code: AF7T4YMY ($18.71 after discount)
Read More

Intro video: Probabilistic approaches to estimation

Posted by in Featured, Reference |

Troy Magennis spoke at the SoCal Lean group: on the basic concepts of Monte-carlo simulation of software projects. It was captured on video by Pascal Pinck (from and is a great starting point on the topic of probabilistic approaches to estimation.


“The SoCal Lean/Kanban meetup had another excellent speaker this month in the form of Seattle-based software exec and lean thinker Troy Magennis. Troy has studied probabilistic approaches to estimation and offers a number of extremely valuable insights and shortcuts to get better estimates and have more useful conversations with stakeholders while incurring less work.”

Read More