Troy Magennis spoke at the SoCal Lean group: kanban.la on the basic concepts of Monte-carlo simulation of software projects. It was captured on video by Pascal Pinck (from http://www.growthpl.us) and is a great starting point on the topic of probabilistic approaches to estimation.

Video: http://kanban.la/2011/08/16/video-troy-magennis-speaks-at-leankanban-meetup/

“The SoCal Lean/Kanban meetup had another excellent speaker this month in the form of Seattle-based software exec and lean thinker Troy Magennis. Troy has studied probabilistic approaches to estimation and offers a number of extremely valuable insights and shortcuts to get better estimates and have more useful conversations with stakeholders while incurring less work.”